Over the next few years exports will be the growth driver for all developed Countries, particularly for all Countries which will be subjected to a stagnation of internal demand. The rapid development of emerging economies will cause a growth in the imports not only of capital goods but also of consumer goods of these Countries. An economy like that of Veneto, traditionally directed at exports, must therefore understand how to seize the opportunities which are arising on the global markets.
The internationalisation of the businesses is a primary competitiveness and development factor. It should be intended as an ability to improve the quality of the presence of businesses in international markets without allowing them purely to be tempted by the productive delocalisation linked to the reduction of the workforce cost. The challenge for the Veneto businesses is identifying the new strategies for increasing the degree of geographical diversification of the exports, consequently reducing their dependence on few reference markets and placing their goods more profitably.
The information regarding the sales flows can provide useful indications for evaluating the definition of new strategies for the presence of our businesses in various foreign markets and the development of the quality of exported goods. The analysis contained in this paragraph refers to the sales flows of the first ten years of the new Millennium, 2010 is the last year with available conclusive data on the commercial interchange with abroad; some statistical indicators have been used in order to measure the degree of internationalisation of a specified area, as the compound annual growth rate calculated on an annual basis (CAGR)
(Note 1) and growth contribution (CCC)
(Note 2).
(Figure 11.1.1),
(Figure 11.1.2)
Over the last ten years barely less than seventy percent of the Veneto exports came from five sectors: mechanics (18.9% of the total in 2010), fashion (18% in 2010), metal and metal products (11.2% in 2010), chemistry and plastic (11% in 2010) and jewellery and eyewear (8.9% in 2010). The relative influence of various sectors has nevertheless experienced some important changes. The mechanics sector has taken the lead in export product value with a share that has increased by 2.5 percent over the last ten years. This sector is the one that also greatly contributed to the growth of exports during the ten years under consideration: 26.6% of the new foreign turnover generated by the Veneto businesses is ascribable to the sale of mechanical products.
However, just behind it some important changes took place: in 2010 the fashion sector (textiles, clothing, leather and shoes) took second place in export value. Over the course of the last two five-year periods this sector lost the leadership of the more export-oriented regional sector. The sector businesses have had to face a big competitiveness crisis. The competition of new emerging economies linked to the low workforce cost has caused the restructuring of many sector companies, with the increasing trend of productive decentralization abroad. This results in a substantial resizing of the regional export load of the section: the amount of exported goods decreased from 22% in 2000 to 18% in 2010 and the value of exports remained equal to that of 2000. Also on the national scale, the foreign turnover amount of the fashion sector decreased by four percentage points: from 15.1% in 2000 to 11.1% in 2010.
In third place, with 11.2% in 2010, the metallurgical processing sector rose (from fifth place in 2000) with a gain of almost four percentage points, in line with what occurred on the national level.
The Veneto exports of the section recorded a compound annual growth rate, which for the sake of easiness we will call the average annual percentage variation, of 6% and contributed by more than 26% to the new regional foreign turnover over the last ten years.
On the other hand, the amount of Veneto exports of chemical products was rather stable, moving from 11.3% in 2000 to 11% in 2010, whilst the national amount increased by almost three percentage points, strengthening the national leadership of the sector by foreign turnover value.
The aggregate of the "other manufacturing industries" which included the goldsmiths, sports articles and eyewear sectors, was worth almost 9% of the Veneto exports in 2010
(Note 3) and dropped to the current fifth place (fourth in 2000), losing a good two percent.
With regard to the remaining sectors, between 2000 and 2010 the food productions increased their importance (from 5.6% in 2000 to 8.8% in 2010) and the section of the electrical equipment (from 7.3% to 8%). The export performance of the food sector was particularly significant as it recorded the highest average annual percentage variation (+6.8% in the period under examination, which moves to 8.8% between 2005 and 2010), thanks to the extraordinary performance of the foreign wine sales.
(Figure 11.1.3)
Another good indicator for measuring the efficiency of an economic system is the standardised balance
(Note 4) which measures the degree of sales specialisation of a specific economic sector or area. The analysis of its dynamics allows the evaluation of the ability of an economy to compete on the international markets. If we consider the dynamics of the standardized balance of the main sectors of Veneto's export during the last decade, there is evidence of some important changes to the sales specialisation which cause Veneto businesses to concentrate in the production of certain goods.
The standardized balance of the mechanical productions increased (from +54.1% in 2000 to +59.2%), whilst the balance of the other main production sectors of the regional specialisation fell as in the case of electrical equipment (from +61.5% to +37.9%), of the jewellery and eyewear (from +67% to +50.7%) and the fashion section (from +31.7% to +13.3%). The latter was mainly caused by a consistent increase in imports from Asia.
Also observing the standardized balance of other two sets of the regional sales balance, that of metal and chemistry, it can be noted that over the last decade, the standardised balance of the metallurgical productions went from -15% to +5.4% whilst for the chemical products it passed from a positive standardised balance value (+8%) to a negative one (-1.1%). This confirms the substantial increase of the Veneto specialisation regarding the production of the metalworking section and the slight loss in competitiveness of other industrial productions.
The Veneto food system continued the slow improvement of the standardized balance deficit (from -27.1% in 2000 to -10% in 2010), taking advantage of the effect of the extreme growth in foreign wine sales.
Finally, the deficit of the standardized balance of the means of transport section was in constant increase: from -32.1% in 2000 to -44.8% in 2010.
(Figure 11.1.4),
(Figure 11.1.5)
Observing the export dynamics of the Veneto manufacturing sector and combining the product sectors on the basis of the type of product and technological intensity
(Note 5), an increase in the amount of exports of intermediate and investment goods and a decrease in the amount of exports of consumer goods, particularly of those that are durable, was recorded. The directions therefore seem to be in line with the dynamics of the world sales and with the growth expectations of various sectors. The expectations on the world scale indicate an increase in the rate on total intermediate goods exports of around three percent over the next five years, and capital goods (+1%).
Over the last years the growth in regional export has been supported by the industrial conversion processes, based on continuous product innovation, which selected the companies able to compete in the markets becoming constantly more globalised. These processes have mainly favoured the position of the specialised businesses in the production of intermediate and capital goods which have shown to be able to stay ahead of foreign competitors.
The weight of intermediate goods
(Note 6) out of the total regional exports increased in both its high tech section (rubber and plastic articles and electrical equipment) from 7.8% in 2000 to 9.1% in 2010, and in its traditional section (from 17.7% to 19.6%) where a marked growth in foreign sales of metallurgical productions is recorded.
The export rate of traditional capital goods also increased
(Note 7) from 7.4% in 2000 to 8.1% in 2010, whilst that of the high tech capital goods (precision mechanics), even if it was the second regional export item, accounted for 22% and remained stable: this is a positive fact because the growth of the capital goods follows the dynamics of the world demand for investment goods, particularly with regard to new economies.
The nondurable consumer goods (fashion, food and drugs) proved to be one of the made in Veneto pillars. Despite a slight fluctuation in the amount of regional export, from 27.5% in 2000 to 26.9% in 2010, the nondurable consumer goods remained the first component of regional exports. However, the dynamic of foreign sales of this type of goods presents a diverse scene: with a continuously growing foreign demand for Veneto productions in the food and luxury clothing sectors and a more controlled growth of goods in the fashion system linked to standard productions.
The durable consumer goods typology recorded the worst performances both in the traditional specialisations and in those that are high tech: the foreign sales of traditional durable goods generated by the Veneto businesses dropped from 13.6% in 2000 to 9.9% in 2010, whilst those of high tech durable goods fell from 3.2 percent in 2000 to 2.7 percent in 2010. This was the result of a marked reduction in the sales volume of durable consumer goods on the international markets (-1.2% compound annual growth rate of foreign sales of traditional consumer goods in the 2000-2010 period, which became -3.3% if the first five years of the new Millennium are taken into consideration) along with which comes a reduction in the average sales price, particularly in the furniture section, due to the competition of "new" producers.
(Table 11.1.1),
(Table 11.1.2)
The Veneto economy seems to be even more distinguished by its high level of entrance into the foreign markets and is consequently well inserted into an international context, characterised by a high competition generated firstly by the liberalisation of markets.
There are many reasons which drive a business towards the decision to expand itself to foreign Countries: the obtainment of cost advantages in production, the research of new end markets and the control over supplies. This seems to be crucial to facing the challenges posed by globalisation and to generating expansion strategies which can be maintained and are often designed to increase their competitive advantage, making use of the opportunities offered by the foreign markets. Therefore, a re-shaping of their internationalisation strategies and a new selection of markets becomes essential for Veneto businesses. The Veneto export should also be directed more towards new emerging markets: during the next years the number of exports to advanced Countries will continue to decrease, whilst the importance of the new economies which include the Countries in the BRIC area will increase.
The analysis of sales flows over the last ten years confirms the shift of the Veneto sales axis towards the East. If the decade 2000-2010 is examined, more than 40% of the cumulative growth of foreign sales generated by Veneto businesses was provided by the exports carried out to the new Mediterranean and Eastern markets.
In the last decade, in line with what happened on a national level, the compound annual growth rate of Veneto exports to new markets was above that of the regional average: +12.8% annually to the Countries in Central Asia (the number of exports increased from 0.5% in 2000 to 1.4% in 2010), +8.1% annually to the Countries of Eastern Europe (Russia at the top), +6.5% annual growth to the Middle East, +4% annually to the Eastern Asia markets (second target area for Veneto exporting businesses), +4.4% annually to the other European Countries (Turkey and Switzerland) and 5.1% annually towards North Africa.
However, there is a drop in export growth to the American continent. The compound annual growth rate of Veneto exports towards North America remains negative both in the first ten years of the new millennium (-3% annually) and in the last five-year period (-3.4% annually), this resulted in a reduction of the amount of foreign sales to those markets by almost five percent (from 12.4% in 2000 to 7.5% in 2010).
The case of exports to Latin America is slightly different: registering a negative compound annual rate (-2.5%) between 2000 and 2010. In the last five-year period the annual dynamics became positive (+8.4%) and enabled the market rates lost in the first five years of the 2000 to be made up in part. The presence of Veneto businesses in these markets is still low and a greater undertaking on the part of the Veneto entrepreneurs in order to take advantage of the opportunities offered by the Countries with the best growth prospects seems necessary: let's consider Brazil, the twenty-sixth target market for Veneto exports which will organise the Football World Cup in 2014 and the Olympics in 2016.
(Figure 11.1.6)
In 2010, the European Union proved itself as the first international seller and buyer of Veneto goods, maintaining a positive standardized balance (+5.9%) but a decline in relation to the balance registered in 2000 (+11.8%). North America remained the geographical area to which Veneto showed the highest value of standardized balance (+62.9%) which grew slightly with respect to the data at the start of the century despite the market drop in exports recorded over the last decade. However, the region with which the standardized balance assumed the lower value was Central Asia (-34.2%).
In comparison with Eastern Asia (6% of the Veneto exports and almost 12% of the regional import) a lowering of the standardized balance has been verified (-22.4% in 2010). In particular, the negative balance registered with China was amplified as a result of the effect of the de-specialisation process of some traditional work, such as those of textiles, clothing, footwear and furniture.
The standardized balance remained positive and increasing in comparison to the other European and Middle Eastern Countries. The increase of the standardized balance with the non-EU European States was particularly marked (from +10.4% to +41.4%) due to a heavy increase in exports to Switzerland and Turkey.