Chapter 7

Listening to the population to keep up with change

Size, structure and characteristics of the population influence the sustainability of long-term development. According to the latest Eurostat projections, in 2060 the European Union's population is expected to be more or less the same size as today, with some differences from country to country; however it will be much older. The progressive ageing of the population is due to increased life expectancy thanks to medical advances, but also to the declining birth rate, which leads to a greater imbalance between young and old people. This has strong repercussions on the labour market, public and private healthcare and social security.
The ageing population is one of the main challenges facing the European Union, especially as the large group of the baby-boom generation comes closer to retirement. Today, there are four people of working age for each person over 65; in 2060 this ratio will be a mere two to one.
A recent analysis confirms that the labour force will continue to grow for the next ten years, given the predicted increase in employment rates and participation in the labour market, then it will begin to decline. It is in these coming ten years that there is a margin of manoeuvre for structural reforms which can address population ageing. Not taking action would reduce the European Union's ability to meet the future needs of an ageing population (Note 1).
Five long-term policy directions were identified in October 2006 as the key in EU strategy to providing a constructive approach to the ageing population and seeing it as an opportunity for growth. These are: promoting demographic renewal; promoting employment and better quality working lives; making Europe more productive and competitive; receiving and integrating migrants; and sustainable public finances which can guarantee adequate social security and equity between the generations.
Supporting birth rates, and therefore demographic renewal, is to be achieved by introducing family-friendly policies and by reconciling work and private lives.
An increase in employment must cover all age brackets, including older workers; they should be given adequate and more flexible working conditions so that they will decide to postpone drawing their pension and stay in the labour market.
This requires a change on the part of many employers who are prejudiced towards older workers' output and do not value their acquired experience and knowledge.
Naturally, according to EU policy, structural reform to ensure pension system sustainability is unavoidable.
Clearly increasing people's working lives makes sense only if people are in good health, hence the need to set up actions in terms of healthcare, particularly preventive measures which impact on people's lifestyles. Active ageing is the ultimate aim of this strategy to improve elderly people's quality of life: staying active in the world of work, participating in social life and keeping good mental and physical health, as suggested by the slogan of the World Health Organization "Add years to life, add life to years".
Against this backdrop, the European Commission has decided to raise awareness by declaring 2012 European Year for Active Ageing and Intergenerational Solidarity, in order to highlight the contribution that both the young and the not so young can make to society.
 
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7.1 The challenge of ageing

"Ageing is a privilege and a societal achievement. It is also a challenge, which will impact on all aspects of 21st century society." With this message the World Health Organization underlines how today the "third age" really is a new phase which can lead to a better quality of life, but which requires special attention from the social system in terms of sustainability of the population. From a demographic point of view, the future of many European countries, and in particular Italy, is very clear: the population is destined to age.
There is a great difference compared to developing countries where the young component of the population is very strong. These areas will have a greater population increase in the next twenty years, and the demographic pressure this creates will encourage even more migratory flows towards Europe. (Figure 7.1.1)
If we look more closely at European countries and those close to the Middle East, Caucasus and Mediterranean and Sub-Saharan Africa they complement each other in a way; the area as a whole seems to have a demographic sustainability which compensates that of the individual countries: for instance the African countries on the Mediterranean with an excessive young population and serious problems of unemployment counterbalance the European regions which are far older and where the active population is beginning to decline.
The level of demographic sustainability countries will have to deal with can be inferred by comparing the average age of the population and life expectancy at birth over time. In Europe, where life expectancy is already very high, the average age of the population is destined to increase in the next decades also due to the low birth rate, thus increasing the imbalance between young people and the elderly.
On the other hand, in North African and Middle Eastern countries, the greatest achievements will be in terms of life expectancy at birth; at the same time the average age will increase, but not as much as in Europe. This leads to the hypothesis that, even if people live a little longer in these areas too, the share of young people will predominate due to higher fertility. (Figure 7.1.2)
There are some differences within the European Union however. Italy is the second oldest country in Europe after Germany. The percentage of elderly people has increased over the years and will continue to do so according to demographic projections. Greece, Portugal and Sweden have a similar situation, while East European countries have younger populations. The ratio between over-65-year-olds and young people in Italy has become quite outstanding and is above 144, that is there are about 44% more elderly people than young people. Veneto is below the national average with an ageing index of 140. (Figure 7.1.3)
Today Veneto has more than 975,000 over 65s, 20% of its population. This number will grow by 45% in the next twenty years, and forecasts state that this will rise to as high as 67% for the oldest people, that is the over 80s, currently over 277,000 people. The older male population, which has greater margin for improvement in terms of life expectancy than the female population, will have a more marked increase. Men aged 80+ will increase by 101% in little more than 20 years, and women by 52%. (Figure 7.1.4)
Population ageing can be considered an indicator of the increasing quality of life. However, it is not so much the increased life expectancy which raises concern, as the fact that it is not being counterbalanced by new births.
Indeed life expectancy has increased and elderly people's health is generally good, and constantly improving. Women in Veneto can expect to live on average until 85, and men until 79. However the gender gap is gradually closing. Veneto is the region where women's life expectancy is third highest, after Trentino Alto Adige and Marche. Life expectancy at 65 is improving. Women who reach 65 can hope to live another 22.3 years on average, men for 18.3 years.
Proof of this lies in the number of people over one hundred years old, which has more than doubled, with over one thousand in Veneto, 7.2% of the total in Italy.
(Figure 7.1.5)
Longer life expectancy will bring major social and economic changes. The areas where the population is mainly elderly will have to review their provision of basic public goods and services, such as health, transport and accommodation. They will also have to take into account family imbalances and an increase in the number of elderly people living alone.
The effects of ageing can also be seen by its impact on pensions in social security. Considering the reduction of the active population and the growing share of elderly people who will be drawing pensions, the rates of economic growth could decrease. As regards predictions, an ever-increasing share of elderly people puts the financial sustainability of the pension system at risk. This is why the issue has become a central one on a European level too. At the same time care should be taken to guarantee pensioners a satisfactory standard of living, in the spirit of intergenerational solidarity.
The elderly are vulnerable in financial terms. In Veneto 16.5% of elderly people are at risk of poverty, more than the overall population (9.7%). Elderly women are at greatest risk as on average they have lower pensions; one out of five is at risk of poverty. Elderly people who live alone are particularly vulnerable, and these are mostly women given their longevity.
On average, an elderly Veneto resident lives on a pension of 11,300 euro a year (median income (Note 2)), not even 1,000 euro a month and a little below the national level.
To assess the adequacy of pensions and whether they allow pensioners to keep up their lifestyle after retiring, the European Commission suggests comparing the financial situation of people who have just retired with those who will retire in the next few years, through the relative income ratio (old-age pension replacement rate (Note 3)). Rates close to 100 indicate that those who have just retired will have a pension income that varies little from what they earn as they come close to retirement age. The situation in Veneto is not bad if compared with other regions. The median income of new pensioners is 60% of the median income of those who are coming close to retirement.
The EU average income for the elderly is 84% of that of the rest of the population (relative income of elderly people (Note 4)), while the pension replacement rate is 49%. France, Austria and Luxembourg are among the countries where elderly people's situation is best, with relative incomes close to 100% and replacement rates above 55%. Latvia and Cyprus are at the other extreme, with replacement rates of barely 30%-35%. Italy stands in the middle, close to the European average. (Figure 7.1.6)
In a country where the number of young people is decreasing, the migrant population, both entries from abroad and new births, helps to re-establish the demographic balance. However it is difficult to predict the long-term repercussions of this since they depend on how strict family reunion policies are and on the birth rate of migrants. Even if we only consider pensions, immigration can provisionally reduce the financial consequences of an ageing population if regularly employed migrants pay their contributions to public pension schemes. With time, active migrants will acquire their own pension rights. They will be able to make a long-term contribution to enduring stability in public finances if a suitable pension system is created (Note 5).

Figure 7.1.1

World population ageing and migration balance 2000-2005

Figure 7.1.2

Future population growth in 2030 and demographic sustainability between 1950 and 2045 within Europe and the Mediterranean area

Figure 7.1.3

Population ageing and future projections. EU27 countries - Years 2000 and projections for 2015 and 2030

Figure 7.1.4

Population by age groups (%). Veneto - Years 1999-2009 and 2010-2030 projections

Figure 7.1.5

People aged over 100 (C) in Italian provinces (absolute values) - Year 2009

Figure 7.1.6

Replacement rate of pensions and median pension of people aged 65 and over by region - Year 2008
 
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7.2 Receiving and integrating migrants

International migration presents new challenges in terms of management and integration for countries like Italy where migratory flows are a recent phenomenon. Moreover, countries with strong emigration flows towards other European countries have now joined the European Union.
Some European countries have a long history of immigration, others a more recent one. As a consequence of its late start, Italy still has a quite modest level of immigration, with much lower numbers compared to countries with a long history of immigration. However, current growth trends lead us to believe Italy will soon find itself with a greater share of foreign migrants. However, caution is required when making comparisons because interpreting the incidence of foreign migrants on the population also depends considerably on administrative and legal factors which can affect the definition of "migrant". Comparisons between different countries are thus not only influenced by their migration history, but also by legal and administrative systems for regulating and recording migration flows. There is the risk that numerical comparisons reflect not so much the extent of the phenomenon as the different migration policies adopted.
(Figure 7.2.1)
In 2009 Europe's migration balance was on the whole positive. Two main factors help understand the origin of migratory flows from third countries towards Europe. The first is geographic proximity. Most migrants come from European countries which are not part of the European Community, for example the Balkans or Eastern Europe. Many others come from Middle Eastern or African countries which are on the Mediterranean. The second factor is the historical and colonial ties which clearly represent a privileged route not merely from economic or commercial points of view, but also demographic, for instance the link between the United Kingdom and India, or between Spain, Portugal and Latin America.
(Figure 7.2.2)
Most migrants come from countries whose level of development is lower than their destination country. Some African countries on the Mediterranean have managed to improve their socio-economic situation. Others, for instance many East European countries, have faced a slowdown in development, as documented in the United Nations' Human Development Index. (Figure 7.2.3)
Migrants are an irreplaceable resource for the labour market and total demographic growth as they make a positive contribution to population renewal and recovery of the birth rate.
There is a considerable amount of migration to Veneto. A total of 11.3% of migrants in Italy have chosen to settle in Veneto, making it the third most attractive region. The last four years have been exceptional with over 120,000 more foreigners recorded between 2006 and 2009. The last year has seen a slightly lower increase than previous years.
Today there are 480,616 foreign residents in Veneto and they account for 9.8% of the population. This is somewhat higher than the national level (7%) and, according to projections by Italy's National Institute of Statistics (ISTAT), in 2030 there will be over 1 million, that is over 19% of the whole population. A total of 49.2% are women and there is a considerable presence of minors in Veneto as they account for almost one quarter of foreigners in Veneto (24.3%), compared to 22% in Italy. (Figure 7.2.4)
On the basis of ISTAT data on foreign residents, the organisation Caritas/Migrantes has made a higher estimate of resident migrants which also includes those who are present but not resident, because there is no record of them in the council registry offices (Note 6). According to this estimate there are over 550,000 foreigners in Veneto. If we also consider those here illegally, we would have to add something between 55,000 (more realistic) and 90,000 on the basis of an estimate made on 1 July 2009 by the Regional Observatory on Immigration.
Although press reports might lead one to think that illegal migrants have arrived clandestinely via sea or land, most are actually overstayers, that is they arrive as tourists or with visas for other purposes, and stay on here once these have expired.
A mosaic of nationalities
A characteristic of migration to Veneto is the great diversity of countries of origin. Veneto is beginning to look like a mosaic of different nationalities. Over the years there has been a change in the migratory flows, both in terms of quantity and nationalities. Today there are representatives from all five continents and a total of 169 nationalities.
Verona sets the record with 142 different nationalities, followed by Venezia, Padova, Vicenza and Treviso, with well over one hundred. Besides the provincial capitals, most different nationality groups are concentrated in the towns in the central swathe of the region. The provinces of Treviso and Venezia stand out, where the majority of local municipalities have at least 30 different nationalities; in the province of Padova, however, it is the Alta Padovana, its northern area, which has the greatest variety. (Figure 7.2.5)
The five most common countries of origin are, in order, Romania, Morocco, Albania, Moldavia and China, which together account for over half of resident migrants. Romanians alone account for over one fifth (20.2%) of all foreigners in Veneto. Since Romania joined the EU there has been a considerable increase of foreigners in Veneto, some of whom were already in the region and simply formalised their presence, others hastily came from Romania. Until 2006 foreigners from other European countries resident in Veneto accounted for less than 5%. In 2009, this share rose to 24.8% due mainly to the arrival of Romanians, who have overtaken Africans (23.4%); the share, however, is lower than that of citizens from non-EU Central European countries (30.9%). Today migration flows seem to have stabilised, with a lower increase in the number of foreigners last year than in 2007 and 2008.
To understand the geographic distribution of a certain nationality group the diffusion index is proposed as a percentage of municipalities in the region where there is at least one resident registered from that group. Values of 100 indicate that the group is well distributed across the region, while values close to 0 indicate a concentration in few municipalities. The Romanian community is the most widespread across the region (index 97.6) with a presence in all the municipalities of the provinces of Padova, Rovigo, Treviso, Venezia and Verona. Moroccan, Moldovan and Ukrainian communities follow, the latter having stronger roots in the province of Belluno. Other nationalities like Serbians and Indians are quite numerous but less equally distributed across the region. (Figure 7.2.6)
Choosing integration
Integration is a challenge for society and a prerequisite for peaceful cohabitation.
This is a heated issue in Veneto, and our economic, social and cultural future depends on how carefully it is managed.
A long-term view of integration aims to establish equality, reciprocity and responsibility between all members of society.
Integration is particularly challenging in areas like Veneto where there are many different nationalities, with very different socio-economic starting points. Before settling and integrating in a country, each foreigner brings not only a cultural baggage, but also the stamp of the social, economic and level of development of his or her country.
The Human Development Index, devised by the United Nations for all countries of the world (United Nations, Human Development Report 2010), considers a country's quality of life not only in economic terms, but also on the basis of other fundamental dimensions such as life expectancy, access to education and standard of living (Note 7). Starting from this measure of development, a value is applied to each foreign citizen according to his or her country of origin, and an average index for all the municipalities in Veneto is calculated. Those between the provinces of Vicenza and Verona extending across the lower areas of the province of Verona and some municipalities in the provinces of Rovigo and Padova receive citizens from areas with lower levels of development. However the mountain areas in the provinces of Verona, Vicenza and Belluno on the borders with Trentino receive foreigners from less disadvantaged areas. (Figure 7.2.7)
True integration goes through different stages. Integration is when foreigners manage to find a space for themselves in society, education and the world of work and have certain rights. True integration cannot happen if a region does not develop political and economic integration strategies to involve foreigners in public life.
Socio-economic integration has not yet been achieved. Foreigners currently experience less favourable working situations than their Italian peers and for this reason are also more affected by the economic crisis. The unemployment rate in Veneto in 2009 for migrants was 11.5%, 2.6 percentage points higher than the previous year. The rate for Italians is just over 4%. Losing one's job and extended period of unemployment push many migrants to consider returning to their country of origin, where at least the cost of living is lower and they can count of the support of family members. It is a difficult decision, particularly for those who have been in Italy for a long time. It can be experienced as a sense of failure and put off as long as possible. Yet in 2009 alone 11% of resident immigrants left Veneto for another foreign country, often their country of origin. That means over 5,000 people, 19% more than the previous year.
Of those who work, 40.3% are overqualified for their jobs, as opposed to 17.1% of Italian workers. Though this figure is above the national average, it has worsened recently, perhaps in part due to the economic crisis. This is reflected in their lower salaries. In Veneto a full-time migrant worker earns, on average, about 150 euro less than an Italian, nevertheless the gaps is the lower if we compare regions. (To read more about foreigners' employment situation see Chapter 11).
(Figure 7.2.8)
Many migrant families are affected by socio-economic difficulties and are not able to have an acceptable standard of living. For example, in the regions of the North East, 38 out of 100 families experience material deprivation, that is they cannot have certain basic goods (Note 8), compared to 8 for Italian families. Many are behind with payments and 65% of foreign families in Italy say they cannot face unexpected expenses.
They are also worse off when it comes to accommodation. The majority live in rented accommodation, which is often of poor quality and overcrowded. Homes are not equipped with all the electrical appliances and comforts that are found in Italian homes. A migrant's initial concerns with integration in fact regard finding adequate accommodation. (Table 7.2.1) and (Figure 7.2.9)
Socio-cultural integration occurs when there is non-conflictual cohabitation between cultures, lifestyles and religions, which can also be obtained through membership of associations, language courses, and involvement in leisure activities.
This is perhaps the most capillary form of integration as not only does it affect the social and economic structures of a region but also individual citizens and their mentality, culture, openness to dialogue and reception.
Integration is above all a question of relations between people of different identities and backgrounds who share the same physical and social space. It is not only ideas or cultures which meet and clash, but real people.
This takes more time, but if well-rooted it can provide a good basis for political measures.
Migration is not always seen as a resource and opportunity. In 2009 39% of people in Veneto considered immigration a serious problem for Italy, after unemployment and crime. This is above the national average (30%). This leads to the consideration that integration is still underway and constantly evolving. New strategies are required to avoid open hostility towards the new population.
From a social participation perspective, it appears that foreigners are gradually beginning to find their space. The number of associations and initiatives involving migrants is growing, which can favour peaceful integration. In 2010 there were 81 associations of migrants and 124 associations for migrants in the Veneto's regional register for immigration. There are a further 29 associations which are not registered, but which operate in the region. There are also many requests for permission for public events from migrants, as well as cultural mediation events. (Table 7.2.2)
So-called "legal" integration is central to lasting and peaceful social and cultural integration. This means the acquisition of citizenship of the country the migrants are resident in, thus they acquire equal rights to the local population.
Regulating access to citizenship should be seen as an instrument to favour integration. Currently in Italy the criterion of ius sanguinis is in force, that is citizenship is determined by having parents who are citizens of the nation. There is currently debate as to whether this principle, or ius soli, birthright citizenship, which is in force in other countries, facilitates the integration of migrants. To this end, proposed revisions to current regulations are underway.
In Veneto citizenship has increasingly been granted, particularly since 2005. In five years the number has more than doubled, and reached 4,495 citizenships granted in 2009, 10.9% of the Italian total. In the last two years most citizenships were acquired by ordinary naturalisation for residence, unlike the trend in previous years whereby marriage was the main reason, particularly for women. On a national level the distribution of citizenships granted by country of origin is similar to distribution of foreigners in the region, at least for the rankings. Albanians are top (15.2%), followed by Moroccans (14.8%) and Romanians (5.1%). (Table 7.2.3)
For foreigners, marriage is an important stage in the migratory path which has brought them to Italy and Veneto. For the region that receives the migrant, marriage not only becomes one of the ways to make integration "legal" but it can also affect the socio-economic and cultural sphere. Mixed couples indicate a growing level of social integration, while marriages between foreigners indicate a transition to a more mature stage of foreign presence. In 2009 one in ten households in Veneto had at least one foreigner (209,342), up 16.5% since 2007.
In 2009 one fifth of marriages in Veneto had at least one foreign spouse (3,588), 11% in Italy. This share has been in constant growth since the 1990s, indeed it is currently three times what it was in 1995. Most common are mixed marriages, that is between Italians and foreigners. The rest are marriages between foreigners, a share which decreases further if we consider only those in which at least one of the two foreign spouses lives in Veneto. As for mixed couples (1,936 marriages in 2009), in 78.9% of cases it is the bride who has foreign citizenship. The frequency of mixed marriages is proportional to the share of foreign presence. They are more common in Northern and Central Italy, that is where migrant communities are more deeply rooted. They are less common in the South and on the Islands. Mixed couples almost always come from countries with strong migratory pressure. Veneto men tend to marry East European or Central-Southern American women, while women more frequently marry men of African origin. If we consider only European countries, foreign women who marry a man from Veneto mainly come from Romania, Moldova, Ukraine, Poland and Albania. Foreign men come from Albania, the United Kingdom, France, Germany and Romania. (Figure 7.2.10)
Supporting emergency immigration
Finding the right balance between migratory flows and sustainable reception in a region is key to implementing effective integration policies. This helps avoid tensions in society besides those physiological ones due to the cohabitation of people from different cultures. Every strong migratory influx to Italy is often perceived as a potential danger which may have negative repercussions on stability and security. Having to face more or less frequent urgent situations should not deflect from the importance of implementing sound inclusion policies for migrants and their families.
Pope Benedict XVI underlined this on his recent visit to Venezia where he highlighted the risk of closing ourselves off from the challenges that today's society presents: "The fear of others, of strangers and of those who come to our lands from afar seem to threaten who we are", and he underlined how "the churches to which Aquileia gave birth are today called to strengthen their ancient spiritual unity, particularly in light of the phenomenon of immigration and the new geopolitical circumstances." This invitation was welcomed by the president of Regione Veneto who highlighted the need to "grasp the true meaning of reception, which should be ordered and respect the human rights of all peoples and not lead to pernicious social tensions and disorder."

Asylum-seekers

Alongside the voluntary migration of those who choose to settle in Veneto, possibly with the long-term aim of living here, is a more forced migration of people who have had to leave their land of origin due to persecution, ethnic rivalry or wars.
The Commissione Nazionale per il Diritto di Asilo (National Commission for the Right to Asylum) deals with foreigners asking for international protection. It oversees territorial Commissions which examine requests for recognition of refugee status, and gathers information on a central level. Each Commission deals with requests presented in its supra-regional territories. The Gorizia Commission is the reference point for Veneto, Trentino Alto Adige and Friuli Venezia Giulia.
It is very likely that the Italian government's policy of pushbacks to Libya from May 2009 has led to a reduction in requests for asylum. A total of 1,383 requests for political asylum had arrived at the Gorizia Commission by 31 December 2009, almost 9% of all cases on a national level, down from 2008 when the highest number of requests was registered in Italy.
Yet 2,107 requests were examined in 2009, which include those presented during the year and some from the previous year which had not yet been checked. Of these, 68.2%, that is 1,437 requests, were rejected. (Figure 7.2.11)

"Greater interest" in minors

There are also many unaccompanied minors coming to Italy amongst those who have arrived in Veneto not out of choice but of necessity.
Minors are the new protagonists of migration. The number of these young people has drastically increased and they make up a significant part of the asylum-seeker population.
Unaccompanied foreign minors are minors who do not have Italian citizenship and, not having applied for political asylum find themselves here without assistance or representation by a parent or other adult who is responsible for them.
In these conditions they cannot be expelled, but rather they have the right to protection and to receive a permit to stay because they are under-age. This is valid until they are 18. They have to be sheltered in safe places and taken on by the local authority's social services.
They can be minors who migrate of their own will, or victims of trafficking or exploitation. This requires complex management of extremely diverse needs: initial reception but also training paths and the need to find suitable solutions for when they reach eighteen.
There are concerns that when they turn 18 they will not have the requisites to prevent them from being expelled, i.e. being employed or studying; therefore they escape the protection of social services and face risks which could threaten their safety and increase pockets of marginalisation.
There were 4,437 unaccompanied foreign minors present in Italy and reported to the Comitato per i Minori Stranieri (Committee for Foreign Minors) (CMS) (Note 9) from January to December 2010. Yet this is an underestimation as it does not include EU minors, victims of trafficking and asylum-seekers. Furthermore, many minors escape from institutions and are not reported or identified by the competent authority, which means they risk finding themselves living on the street and being exploited, in makeshift dwellings, or in other temporary solutions.
Some young people without identification papers say they are adults in the hope that they will not be held in centres for minors and so they can find a job more easily. In this case they risk being condemned for the crime of illegal entry and stay, expelled, repatriated or held in centres for adult migrants.
Until 2009 about 7,000 unaccompanied foreign minors were reported to the CMS every year. This number has decreased since Romania and Bulgaria entered the European Union; over 30% of unaccompanied minors came from Romania. It is also due to the new immigration and security policies adopted by the Italian government. Following the agreements made with Libya, from May 2009 arrangements were made for coasts to be jointly patrolled and migrants found in international waters were returned, including adult men, women and unaccompanied minors.
According to the CMS, the share of unaccompanied minors in Veneto is between 4% and 5% (about 300 every year) of the total reported. In the first six months of 2010, 267 were counted, almost half in the province of Venezia alone (Note 10).
Over three quarters of unaccompanied minors are aged between 16 and 17. This corroborates the hypothesis that migration of minors is an alternative to adult migration, which is more problematic. This means that "if the minor succeeds in his migratory path, he will be able to bring income and become an economic migrant" (CMS Vice-president).
Once reported, minors come under the care of the social services of the municipality where they were found, and sheltered in a suitable environment, either foster families or, more often, in reception centres for children.
At the same time they are assigned a public guardian, nominated by the Juvenile Court, who follows them until they are 18, liaising with social services, healthcare and education providers who deal with their growth and development.
The CMS attempts to identify the minor and, together with the consulates of the country of origin and the International Organization for Migration (IOM) checks whether the environmental, security and family situation in the country of origin would allow for assisted return or else, if it would be in the best interest of the minor for them to stay in Italy in order to receive maximum protection. The 1989 New York Convention on the Rights of the Child, ratified by Italy in 1991, states that the fundamental principle "best interests of the child" should be the leading criterion in all decisions made regarding the life and future of every child.
According to a recent study carried out by Anci, which monitors the National programme for protection of unaccompanied minors, on 31 December 2008 there were 7,216 unaccompanied minors in the care of social services in reception centres in Italian municipalities, 636 of which were in Veneto. Yet it is difficult to acquire precise data on this phenomenon given the high mobility of this group of foreigners in the region and their tendency to escape from institutions.
Finally, since 2007, on arriving at the border, unaccompanied minors requesting asylum have had the right to be placed in a shelter of Italy's System of protection for asylum seekers and refugees (SPRAR) (Note 11), if there are places available. Unaccompanied minors asking for international protection sheltered in SPRAR accommodation rose from 31 in 2006 to 197 in 2007, up to 409 in 2008, then falling to 320 in 2009.

Irregular entry

Supporting a commitment to effective integration also means territories have to control the arrival of irregular immigrants. Keeping the phenomenon under observation helps understand its extent without risking the management of reception getting out of hand.
Compared to 2008, there was a considerable reduction in sea arrivals, from 37,000 in 2008 to less than 10,000 in 2009, and the trend seemed to further decrease with little more than 2,200 in the first 8 months of 2010. Here too, intensified patrolling and the bilateral agreements made with North African countries, Libya in particular, seem to have discouraged migrants from heading to Italy's shores, probably encouraging them to try new entry modes or new destinations, as witnessed by the increase of flows towards Greece, Cyprus and the Canary Islands (Note 12).
Those who do arrive land on the coasts of Calabria, Puglia, Sardegna and Sicilia, but mainly in Lampedusa (in 2008 83% of sea arrivals came via Lampedusa). It is not only the idea one gets from the news, but also the average number of people per boat which leads to the supposition that these arrivals are not the result of improvised individual or group attempts, but rather of an organised trafficking operation. According to 2008 data, the migrants arriving in Sicilia travelled in groups of almost 70 people on average. They are mostly men, and almost always from North African countries on the Mediterranean.
(Table 7.2.4)
Identification and refoulement of irregular migrants also declined. Compared to ten years previously, the number of irregular migrants traced in 2009 was less than half. The reduction in refoulement in recent years can be attributed to Romania and Bulgaria's entry to the EU, since prior to this citizens from these two countries were the most numerous to be expelled at the border.
There are various reasons why only a small number are sent back, including the lack of human resources and the difficulty in identifying foreigners and understanding their origin. Since Italy signed the Geneva Convention, it is obliged to not push back people who have been recognised as needing international protection (Note 13). (Table 7.2.5)

Escaping to democracy

Recent events in North Africa have led to the movement of large groups of people, not just to neighbouring African countries by land, but also towards Italy and Malta by sea. For instance, according to the High Commissioner of the United Nations for Refugees, on 10 April 2011 498,313 people had escaped the violence in Libya by crossing the borders to Tunisia (236,151) and Egypt (199,700) mainly, but also to Niger, Algeria, Chad and Sudan.
There were fewer escapes by sea. The same source revealed that in mid-April about 1,100 people from Libya arrived in Malta and about 3,300 in Lampedusa.
An update on 3 May revealed that 8,100 had arrived in Lampedusa from Libya in all, on average about 208 people per day, with varying intensity. So many arrived that the threshold of almost one migrant per inhabitant was reached, in a territory of just 20 square kilometres.
Landings by sea are no novelty for Lampedusa. It normally deals with 30,000 arrivals a year, with an average of 84 a day. But in these exceptional circumstances, with concentrated flows which more than doubled in just a few days, the situation became difficult to sustain, despite the efforts and assistance provided, with tension both within migrant groups and between migrants and the local population. Up to 2,000 people stayed in extremely overcrowded conditions in the island's reception centre, which was designed for a maximum capacity of 850.
What is clear is that they are not all Libyans. Many migrants arriving in these months come from Tunisia. They are not refugees escaping war, but young, healthy illegal migrants looking for work. On the other hand, those escaping from Libya include women, men and children. These people can, by law, request political asylum. Together with others from the Arab world, they are escaping from a very difficult political and social situation.
Once they have landed comes the delicate phase of identification. Those who have not escaped from conflict zones face refoulement, while for the others Italy has committed to providing shelter and adequate hospitality in the various centres across the country. The distribution of these displaced people across regions is based on the resident population, which means that 93 of every 1,000 are accommodated in Veneto.
According to data supplied by the Civil Protection Department of the Veneto Region, from mid-April to 16 May 2011 several groups arrived, totalling about 700 people. In April about 200 people were received, all Tunisians with temporary stay permits lasting 6 months. Of these 44 are still here, the others have continued their journeys to other countries, mainly France, where they say they have relatives or friends. Since May, however, political asylum seekers have been arriving from Libya and other conflict-torn zones. A total of 580 asylum seekers are currently being sheltered in the region, but at least another 75 are predicted to arrive in the next few days.

Figure 7.2.1

Non-nationals as a percentage of the population in EU27 countries - Year 2009

Figure 7.2.2

Origin of migrants in Europe - Year 2000

Figure 7.2.3

Human Development Index of Europe and Mediterranean area - Years 1975 and

Figure 7.2.4

Foreign residents and percentage of population. Veneto - Years 1993-2009

Figure 7.2.5

Number of foreign citizens per municipality. Veneto - Year 2009

Figure 7.2.6

Diffusion Index of foreign resident population by the main nationalities. Veneto - Year 2009

Figure 7.2.7

Human Development Index (HDI) average of foreign residents by municipality. Veneto - Year 2010

Figure 7.2.8

Percentage of Italian and foreign workers who are overqualified for their jobs (out of total employed population aged 15 and over). Veneto and Italy - Years 2005 and 2009

Table 7.2.1

Living and economic conditions of families with foreigners. Italy - Year 2009

Figure 7.2.9

Summary indicators of material deprivation and severe housing deprivation by geographic distribution - Year 2009

Table 7.2.2

Cultural aspects and social participation of foreign citizens. Veneto, Italy and some regions - Year 2008

Table 7.2.3

Italian citizenships granted for foreign citizens by reason. Veneto - Years 1999-2009

Figure 7.2.10

Marriages with foreign spouses. Veneto - Years 1995-2009

Figure 7.2.11

Requests for international protection for foreigners received by territorial commissions. Italy and Gorizia Commission - Years 1999-2009

Table 7.2.4

Irregular boat landings intercepted along Italian coastline - Years 2006-2010

Table 7.2.5

Refoulement, expulsion and repatriation of migrants found to have irregular status. Italy - Years 1999-2010
 
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7.3 Giving value to Veneto's roots

The questions raised about Italy's demographic future have revived curiosity about its roots, since knowing where we come from can help us understand where we want to go.
Italy celebrated the 150th anniversary of national unification on 17 March 2011, an important event which has spurred today's generations to understand their history, identify with the values of civil commitment, collective interest and courage which animated the Risorgimento. 2011 is an important time for the country to remember its unity and take pride in its art and culture. The anniversary has come at a time when it is important for Italy not only to look at its past achievements, but also to look towards the future, towards Europe, with a shared aim to ensure the country grows and develops.
In relation to this, the President of the Republic Giorgio Napolitano reminds us: "It is right to remember the problems and the high and low points of the construction, highlighting what has been left undone in the process of unification, the most serious of which is not having closed the gap between North and South." But then he highlights how it is necessary to "recover reasons for national pride: this greater awareness of our common history is necessary also to give us the confidence we need to help us face the challenges of today and those lying in the future, to maintain our dignity in a changed and changing world".
From Scoglio di Quarto, a district of Genova, on the 5 May 1860, the Expedition of the Thousand, the final stage of the long movement for Italian Unification was set in motion, ending on 17 March 1861.
Napolitano highlights: "Italian unification was pursued and achieved through the confluence of different visions, strategies and tactics, the combination of diplomatic schemes, political initiatives and military action, the intertwining of moderate and revolutionary democratic components. It was a truly prodigious and winning combination as it was stronger than the occasionally bitter tensions it faced."
To be precise, Garibaldi's Thousand were actually 1,089 people from all over Italy, as well as some foreigners and Italians born abroad (Note 14). Of these there was just one woman, native of Savoia, and many citizens from Bergamo and Genova. Veneto also made its precious contribution with about 150 men. (Figure 7.3.1)
Demographic seasons
Since 1861 the Italian world of municipalities has been transformed many times, not just in number following administrative and territorial changes, but also in terms of space, by acquisition or handover of territories. In 1861 there were 7,720 Italian municipalities, slightly less than half in Lombardia and Piemonte.
Veneto was annexed to the Kingdom of Italy in 1866 after the Third War of Independence, and initially also included the province of Udine.
We will now broadly outline a brief history of Veneto from Italian Unification to today from a demographic perspective.
Historical demographers usually identify key phases in the evolution of a population, which can be traced back to what are called first and second demographic transitions.
The first demographic transition follows three main phases, on the basis of birth and death rates. In the first phase the population grows fairly slowly, as a result of high birth rates, which are however accompanied by high death rates. The second phase starts with a strong reduction in the number of deaths, particularly of children. This is due to medical progress and improved hygienic conditions and nutrition which eliminate a range of diseases which used to decimate the population. Initially the birth rate stays high, leading to strong population growth. Subsequently the number of births begins to fall, but at the same time the number of deaths falls as well, thus the positive gap between births and deaths narrows, as does demographic growth. The third phase of demographic transition is marked by a considerable stability in low fertility and mortality levels if not by a further reduction in the birth rate.
Some scholars, such as Ron Lesthaeghe, talk of a second demographic transition which is characterised by new family behaviours, following cultural changes and different values: delayed maternity, increased separations, more people living together and births out of wedlock. The main consequence of this is the worrying decline in fertility which is below the threshold of generational change. On the whole there is a move from natural population growth to population control, marked by control of births, disease and death. The developments indicated are trends, which in history have manifested themselves through short- and medium-term fluctuation.
From an analysis of the birth and death rates in Veneto, the initial phase of the first demographic transition can be considered over in around 1880, when there was a great decline in the number of deaths. At the same time, the sustained birth rate determined a growth in the population, the highest in these 150 years, particularly at the beginning of the 20th century at the dawn of the First World War.
The 1920s were marked by a sharp decline in the birth rate which, with the exception of certain years, has become lower and lower.
Indicatively, after the Second World War, Veneto, like Italy, entered the third transition phase with both low birth and death rates.
At this time, population gains were due almost exclusively to increased life expectancy and, in the last decade, to a slight increase in fertility, thanks also to the contribution of new entries from abroad.
At the beginning of the 1980s in Italy there were indications of a change in reproductive behaviour and family formation, which hint at the beginning of the second demographic transition. (Figure 7.3.2) and (Figure 7.3.3)
These demographic trends have had an impact on the population's profile by age, as can be seen in the figures relating to population distribution by gender and age groups registered in the censuses carried out in these 150 years.
Birth rates and death rates are pyramidal in form, at the base a high number of births which tapers due to deaths. The switch from the first to the second phase does not show an immediately visible change in shape, it is still pyramidal in form and sees an enlargement of the base due to the reduction of the child mortality rate, as can be seen in 1911.
The decline in the number of births strongly contracts the relative importance of the younger age-groups, making the base smaller, and increases the older age-groups, transforming the pyramid into a more or less rectangular shape.
In the third phase of stability or population decline, the shape of the distribution is still rectangular, but the base is narrower than the central area, thus it looks rather like a mushroom, considering also the increased share of elderly people.
The presence of disturbing features, such as wars or intense migration flows, can be seen through anomalies in the shape. Wars produce bottlenecks in brief age intervals, corresponding above all to the groups born during the war, followed by post-war widening due to the recovery of birth rate. Deaths in war are not easily visible in the graph.
Intense migratory flows are visible with swellings (immigration) or erosions (emigration), corresponding to the central age groups, above all regarding the male population.
In light of this, the bottleneck which can be seen starting from the base of 1921 and then in subsequent years, identifies the "unborn" during the First World War, who would have been aged 40-44 in 1961, and today would be over 90-years old. The effects of the Second World War are less visible in terms of missing births, though noticeable in the 5-9 age group in 1951.
The recovery of birth rates in post-war times can be seen in the relative widening of the 5-9 age group in 1931, corresponding to the first post-war period, and of the 0-4 age group in 1951 following the Second World War.
Furthermore, in the 1971 pyramid, there was a clear widening in the 5-9 age group indicating the transitory recovery of birth rates from 1960-1964 following economic and industrial expansion. These are the children of the baby-boom who are currently over 45.
In comparing sexes there is a higher death rate for males, particularly in the first figures where the male profile is steeper. The most visible erosions for men, for example in 1911 and 1931, are the result of emigration, which involved mainly men.
Migration abroad took place in the years following Unification, on a massive scale in the first decade of the 20th century, 1901-1911, due to the pressure of surging population growth facing difficult economic development, and then in the more recent post-war period, 1951-1961, when borders opened towards more industrialised areas. (Figure 7.3.4)
The evolution of the family is also surprising. There were between 600,000 and 700,000 families in Veneto until the 1950s, with a sudden drop between 1911 and 1921 probably due to the effects of the First World War. During this time there were on average 5 or 6 family members. With the industrial development of the 1950s and 1960s the number of families started to grow again: in 1971 it topped one million and in 2009 2 million. At the same time, however, the average number of family members declined drastically. The traditional extended family is slowly vanishing and while at the outbreak of the Second World War the average family had 5.2 members, today it has 2.4. This radical transformation since the second half of the 20th century is certainly due to birth control, greater wellbeing and urbanisation, for the move from the country to the city has brought with it the need to live in smaller spaces. (Figure 7.3.5)
A rural, illiterate past
In the 150 years of history of since Italian Unification, the achievements made in terms of education have been decisive not only for economic growth but also for improving the standard of living and hygiene and for increasing life expectancy and quality. Education is still a strategic theme in development policies on an international level, as can be seen in the importance it was given in Europe before in the Lisbon Agenda and today in the Europe 2020 Strategy.
School, as an instrument of social development rather than an institution reserved for the few, began to have a true history in the 19th century. The press had a wider circulation, thus new ideas begin to spread and the more humble classes begin to demand culture.
Despite this growing fervour, the young Kingdom of Italy found it difficult to cut loose from ignorance and guarantee the lower classes social the advancement they had been denied for centuries.
When the Gazzetta Ufficiale (Official Gazette) declared that the newborn Kingdom of Italy would be ruled by Victor Emanuel II on 17 March 1861, the king found himself leading an illiterate population: 14 million of its 18 million people who were at least 6 years old, that is 75%, could not read or write, and the percentage was even higher in the South and among women. Ten years later when Veneto too belonged to the kingdom, 69% of Italy and 66% of Veneto were illiterate.
In 1877 the Coppino law (Note 15) introduced free compulsory schooling for the first two years of primary education, in order to teach literacy and numeracy. But this was not fully applied because the cost of the facilities and teachers weighed on the municipalities alone, and many were not able to face these costs.
Though it was shortening, the road to true mass education still seemed long. In subsequent censuses the percentage of illiteracy gradually reduced, but at the beginning of the 20th century over one third of people in Veneto and almost half of Italians could still not read or write. In the following decades significant steps were taken and after the Second World War only 6% of people in Veneto were illiterate, and virtually none in the latest census in 2001.
At the same time higher education levels have become more widespread, indeed today 36% of people in Veneto have a high school leaving diploma and 10% graduate from university. (Figure 7.3.6) and (Figure 7.3.7)
The population's educational attainment strongly reflects the social and economic progress Italy has made in these 150 years. The changes in the professional structure of the population are very significant.
In 1861 70% of Italy's active population worked in the agricultural sector, 18% in industry and 12% in other areas. Thanks to the reconstruction of data per region (Note 16), it is estimated that in the same year, 72.5% of the active population in Veneto worked in agriculture, 13.7% in industry and 13.8% in services.
Agriculture was the main activity until the end of the 1950s and Veneto was late in terms of the industrial development which other regions in the North, particularly in the industrial triangle, were undergoing.
In the following 30 years Veneto went through two important stages, first from an agricultural economy to a more industrialised society, and then to an economy concentrated on services.
In the second post-war period the process of industrialisation called for a large workforce. Workers poured in from the fields to assembly plants and offices, urban and suburban areas took in a growing share of the population whilst rural areas saw their populations decline. Thus in 1961 industry took over and the sector employed the majority of the population (44.3%). (Figure 7.3.8)
The process of tertiarisation which followed came to a peak in the 1980s and the early 1990s when Veneto registered growth levels which were higher than in most of Italy, and the system of small enterprises proved winning, as they resisted the crisis which struck larger businesses in other areas of North Italy. In 1991 there was another change, when services overtook industry. Over half the active population (Note 17) were employed in the services sector, and in 2010 this reached 60%; a mere 3% were left in agriculture.

Figure 7.3.1

The origins of Garibaldi's soldiers in the Expedition of the Thousand

Figure 7.3.2

Phases of demographic transition: population and birth and death rates per 1,000 inhabitants. Veneto - Years 1871-2010

Figure 7.3.3

Resident population at census by province. Veneto - Years 1871-2010

Figure 7.3.4

Distribution of population by age groups since Italian Unification. Veneto - Years 1871-2009 and 2030 projections

Figure 7.3.5

Families and average number of members at census. Veneto - Years 1871-2010

Figure 7.3.6

Illiteracy rate. Veneto and Italy - Years 1861-2001

Figure 7.3.7

Percentage distribution of resident population aged 6 and over by educational attainment. Veneto - Years 1951-2001 and 2010

Figure 7.3.8

Percentage distribution of working-age population by economic sector. Veneto - Years 1861-2010
 

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