In the last year world trade has again become one of the most important components in the recovery of the world economy. The volume of international trade grew by about 12% in 2010, recovering some of the ground lost in 2009, when it declined by about 12%. According to the experts of the International Monetary Fund, however, we will have to wait another year to return to the level of international trade for 2008.
Both exports from the most industrialised countries, the volume of which grew by about 8%, and the foreign sales of the new economies, which recorded an increase of about 12%, contributed to this growth in world trade.
Forecasts for the dynamics of world trade confirm that changes in the geographical structure of world exports are underway: the share of trade with developed countries will continue to decline, and the weight of emerging economies will increase. In the coming years, the demand for foreign goods from the countries of the BRIC area
(Note 2) will make an important contribution to the recovery of world trade and thus the world economy.
(Figure 2.1.1)
In Italy
In 2010, Italy's national trade balance was approximately -27 billion euro, notably higher than the 5.9 billion euro deficit recorded in 2009. The trade balance with the countries of the EU remained negative and stood at about -7.1 billion euro (-2.8 billion in 2009). Trade with countries outside the EU also had a negative balance, equal to about -20 billion euro, decidedly worse than the deficit recorded in the previous year (-3.1 billion euro). The negative Italian trade balance was due in large part to the deficit in the energy sector (-51 billion euro). This excluded, the national trade balance had a significant surplus (+24 billion euro), even though in decline compared to 2009 (+38.2 billion euro).
The trade balance in the electronics sector was also negative (-20 billion euro), while a positive balance was recorded in the sectors of mechanical goods (+37.8 billion euro), textiles and leather goods (+11.7 billion euro) and rubber and plastic products (+9.5 billion euro).
In 2010 significant increases were recorded both in national exports (+15.7%) and in imports (+22.6%). As for trading partners, there was growth in exports to Russia (+23.2%), Turkey (+42.1%), Switzerland (+18.4%) Germany (+18.4%), the United States (+19.4%), India (+23.9%) and China (+30.2%). For imports, a trend of rather significant increases was recorded in purchases from China (+47.8%), Germany (+17.8%), Spain (+24.1%), Turkey (+16.7%) and the Middle East (+71.8%).
For the principal sectors of the economy, generally there were annual increases. There was an increase of more than 50% in the export of oil products; more modest, even though higher than the national average, were the increases in the exports of metal products and electronics (+21.8% and +20.1% respectively) and chemicals (+26.2%). The principal sector of national exports (the mechanical sector) grew by about 9% for the year.
In 2010 the value of national imports increased +22.6 % compared to 2009 due to the economic activity in all the principal sectors. The major increases were in metal products (+45.6%), electronics (+40.3%), energy (+30.2%) and chemicals (+23.5%).
(Table 2.1.1) and
(Table 2.1.2)
All geographical areas had a significant increase in the export of goods, with larger increases than the national average for the Islands (+51.7%), due to the surge in the value of sales of refined oil products abroad, as well as for Central (+17.2 %) and Southern Italy (+15.9%). Increases a little below the national average were recorded in both parts of the North (+14.1% in the North West and +15.4% in the North East).
The trends in the last two quarters of 2010, on the basis of quarterly data, highlight the positive variation in exports in all geographical areas; growth was more intense in the third quarter for the North East (+6.4%) and for the North West regions (+5.2%), while for the fourth quarter it was the Southern and Island regions that recorded the most significant increase (+4.2% compared to the previous quarter).
In Veneto
In 2010 Veneto consolidated second place in Italy's regional rankings for the total value of exports (45.6 billion euro, a 13.5% share of the national total). After a decline of 21.5% in 2009, Veneto's export performance in 2010 (+16.3% compared to 2009) was higher than the national average (+15.7%)
(Note 3). The trend in the flow of trade in recent years highlights a significant and stable growth in regional exports, but it only partially recovered from the slump in regional foreign sales caused by the steep decline in international trade in 2009. In the first quarter of 2010 regional exports recorded a small increase (compared to the same quarter of the previous year), equal to 2.4%, and went on to exceed 20% in the last three quarters of 2010.
(Figure 2.1.2) and
(Figure 2.1.3)
The analysis of the trend in exports towards various markets highlights how the increase of exports from Veneto involved primarily the flows toward countries outside the EU (+20% compared to 2009 and a regional share of 40%), with particularly significant increases to the United States (+30.9%), China (+49.8%), Russia (+18.6%), Hong Kong (+34%), Switzerland (+25.9%) and Turkey (+24.4%).
Even though the emerging economies of the BRIC countries still represent a small share of the market, Veneto's exports to the area have recorded a significant increase: +32.2% in 2010.
For the EU (+14% compared to 2009) the most significant increases were recorded for Germany (+17.3%), the United Kingdom (+13.8%), Slovakia (+29%), the Czech Republic (+19.3%), Poland (+20.3%) and Romania (+18.7%). Instead there were slight declines in trade toward Greece (-11.6%) and Croatia (-11.7%).
(Figure 2.1.4)
In 2010, an increase in exports was recorded in almost all sectors of economic activity. The leading sector in Veneto's exports remained the mechanical industry (18.9% of regional exports), followed closely by fashion (18%). Some products, such as furniture, jewellery and sporting goods, reached a share of 13.4% of Veneto's exports, while metal products accounted for a little more than 11%.
The largest increases in export turnover were for the industries which, in 2009, had suffered most from the international trade crisis: machinery and equipment (+18.8%), metals (+19.5%), vehicles (+29.8%), agricultural products and foodstuffs (+15.1%) and chemicals (+22.9%). Export turnover also recovered in the Veneto fashion industry: 2010 closed with an increase of +9.9% for textile products, +5% for clothing and +16% for leather and leather products. The sales of electronic goods, however, fell: -1.7% compared to 2009.
Veneto again had a positive trade balance, nearly 8 billion euro in 2010; results were extremely positive in the mechanical sector (a 6.4 billion euro surplus) and other manufactured products - furniture, jewellery, sporting goods and medical supplies (+4.6 billion) -, fashion (+2.1 billion) and electrical appliances (+2 billion). The vehicle sector, however, ran a deficit (-3.6 billion). The regional trade balance by geographical destination had a surplus both toward the EU (+3.2 billion) and the countries outside the EU (+4.6 billion). The trade deficits with East Asia (-1.9 billion) and with China (more than 2.4 billion) remained significant.
(Figure 2.1.5) and
(Figure 2.1.6)
In 2010 the value of imports to Veneto was about 38 billion euro (10.4% of the national total), an increase of about 24% compared to 2009. The most imported products were those of the fashion sector (16.3% of the regional total and an annual increase of +17.5%), vehicles (15.7%), agricultural products and foodstuffs (12.9%) and metals (12%). The growth in value of imports involved all the principal sectors of the region and the rise was particularly intense for metal products (+45.8% compared to 2009), mechanical products (+24.4%) and electronic products (+83.9%).
The EU continues to be the principal source of imports to Veneto, with a share around 64% of the total (Germany remains the principal partner, accounting for about 24%). The second source is East Asia with 14.1%. Other significant sources are the countries of Eastern Europe (4%) and North Africa (4.3%). Imports to Veneto recorded significant increases, in terms of value, in all the geographical areas examined: +25.4% from the EU, with peaks of more than 40% from the United Kingdom, Spain, Slovenia and Austria; +25.3% from Eastern Europe; and +17.8% from North Africa.
The provinces
(Table 2.1.3) Vicenza again confirmed its position as Veneto's export capital in 2010; its provincial sales were just over 13 million euro at current prices. It was followed by Treviso and Verona. The exports of the enterprises of Vicenza made up nearly 29% of regional exports, and in 2010 they recorded an annual growth of about 16%, but recovered only part of their pre-crisis value.
The second-placed province for the value of its foreign sales was Treviso, which accounted for nearly 22% of regional turnover. Treviso is also the province that recorded the lowest growth rate: its export increased by 10.7% on 2009.
Firms from Verona accounted for about 18% of regional exports and recorded an increase slightly below the regional average.
Padova was first for the growth of regional foreign sales: +24.5% compared to 2009, with a figure of around 7 billion euro in 2010. Venezia enterprises exported goods for a value of 3.8 billion euro and their export turnover increased by +15.4% compared to 2009. There were also notable increases in exports from the provinces of Belluno (+19.7% compared to 2009) and Rovigo (+22.9%).
Looking at the overall imports, Verona still imports the largest quantity of goods. In 2010 the value of imported goods reached almost 12 billion euro, equivalent to 31.1% of regional imports, and the rate of annual growth was just over 18%.
About 20% of regional imports were concentrated in the province of Vicenza, equal to about 7.5 billion euro, and the growth of its imports was more than 30% higher than the previous year.
The total value of goods imported to the province of Treviso in 2010 was equal to 6 billion euro. Treviso's share of total imports for Veneto was around 16%, and the province retained third place in the regional rankings for total value of imported goods. In 2010 the enterprises of the province of Padova imported goods for a total value of 5.7 billion euro (+36.2% compared 2009), making up 15.1% of regional imports. Imports by the province of Venezia were equal to 5 billion euro, an increase of 12% compared to the previous year. Belluno and Rovigo recorded an import value of around one billion euro.
Belluno
Belluno's main exports were optical and medical equipment, 63.3% of the province's exports, an annual increase of about 19%. There were signs of a clear recovery of exports in mechanical goods (+21.7% compared to 2009) and metal goods (+38.1%).
Belluno's enterprises increased exports in all their main markets, with peaks of over 40% to Poland, Hong Kong and Russia. In the US market, the most important for Belluno's goods, export sales increased by +27.2%, to exceed 440 million euro. Exports to China also grew noticeably: +28.8 compared to 2009.
Imports also recorded a positive trend (+21%), going from 715 million euro in 2009 to more than 865 million euro in 2010. This growth was largely due to optical and medical equipment (+20.7 % compared to 2009), electronics (+27.7 %), metals (+24.1%), mechanical goods (+12.7%) and fashion (+24.1 %). These industries increased trade with China (+24.4%), which is ever more clearly the leading supplier of local manufacturing industries.
Padova
Foreign trade figures for the province of Padova confirm the recovery of local exports. The three main aggregates of provincial exports all recorded positive trends. Mechanical products increased their impact on total exports (+21.3% on 2009); nearly 30% of the province's foreign sales came from these products. Export sales were also on the rise for other industries (gold, furniture, sporting and medical goods), which recorded an increase of about 14%. Exports in fashion, the province's second biggest sector, also grew: +10.6%.
The European markets were the most active destinations for exports, with increases greater than 40% to Germany, the United Kingdom, Switzerland, Austria, Poland and the Czech Republic. There were also favourable trends with other important trading partners: +21.3% for France, +25.3% for Spain and +19.4% for the United States.
There was again a positive trend in imports involving nearly all the principal economic sectors, with ample growth in metal products (+62.7% compared to 2009), electronics (+110.9%), mechanical goods (+24.2%) and fashion (+28.5%). The negative trend in imports of foodstuffs (-11.5%) and vehicles (-13.4%) continued.
Germany is still the main supplier of Padova's imported goods, with 1.2 billion euro, an increase of +33.7%; it supplies more than 21% of the province's imports. A considerable increase in purchases of Chinese goods (+56.8% compared to 2009) was also recorded. China has become the second leading supplier of industry in Padova (725 million euro, equal to 12.7% of provincial imports) in a few short years.
Rovigo
2010 was also a year of recovery for the trade balance of the province of Rovigo. Local industries again began to sell on international markets, priming in this manner provincial exports, which in 2010 reached the value of 1.1 billion euro, an increase of +22.9% compared to the previous year.
By sector, foreign sales of mechanical products fell (-3.6%), while all the other sectors recorded significant increases, with peaks of over 15% in fashion (+23.8%), electronic equipment (+34.5%), and rubber and plastic articles (+18.2%). The foreign sales of vehicles were in clear recovery even though they only recovered part of the decline recorded in 2009.
There were considerable increases in exports to all the principal markets: Germany (+22.1%), France (+14.5%), Spain (+14.4%) and the United Kingdom (+18.2%). In addition there was a boom in foreign sales to Libya, which went from 8 million euro in 2009 to 47 million in 2010.
As for imports, the value for foreign purchases of mechanical goods and vehicles decreased, while imports of agricultural produce (+44%), chemicals (+43.1%) and electronic products increased, the latter becoming the leading import sector (+184 million euro compared to 2009). The Netherlands has confirmed itself as the main supplier of Rovigo; in 2010 the value of goods imported from this market exceeded 278 million euro, equivalent to almost one quarter of provincial imports.
Treviso
Analysing the trend in exports of the principal manufacturing sectors, the main growth in foreign sales was seen in furniture, sporting goods and jewellery (+11.4% compared to 2009), mechanical goods (+27.8%), electrical appliances (+12%) and agricultural produce and foodstuffs (+8.1%). For fashion, the province's leading sector for the value of exported goods (2.1 billion euro in 2010), the negative trend in foreign sales continued (-1.1% compared to 2009).
The principal foreign markets of Treviso's exports remain Germany (+3.8% compared to 2010), France (+6.4%), Romania (+24.9%), the United Kingdom (+7.4%), and China, which went from 268 million euro in 2009 to 582 million in 2010, to become the third leading market for the province's businesses.
All the principal economic sectors contributed to the growth in the value of Treviso's exports, in particular the metal (+34.3%), wood (+30.7%) and mechanical sectors (+38.6%). The most important sector of provincial imports remains fashion, which accounts for 33% of all imports and in the last year recorded an increase of about 8%.
As to their geographical distribution, in the last year imports from China increased notably (+27.5%). China is Treviso's leading import partner and accounts for 1.2 billion euro of the province's imports (nearly 20% of its total). Imports also rose from Germany (+52.3%), Austria (+58.3%) and India (+45.6%).
Venezia
The significant oscillations in foreign sales related to ships and aircraft (563 million euro in 2010, a 14.8% of the province's total) had a major influence on the trend of Venezia's exports.
In the last year the increase in Venezia's exports was due to vehicles (199 million euro more than 2009), metals (+24.7%), mechanical goods (+26.7%), chemicals (+28.8%) and petroleum products (+21.7%). The positive trend in Venezia's exports was partially moderated by a negative trend in the sales of electronic components (99 million euro less than 2009).
Concerning the markets for Venezia's goods, exports increased to the United States (258 million euro more than 2009), which is again the leading trading partner of the province's firms, as well as to Germany (+17.5 %), France (+15.4%), the United Kingdom (+17%), Croatia (+36.4%), the Netherlands (28.5%) and Belgium (+33.5%).
In the last year, the growth of Venezia's imports was generated by the demand for energy (+9.5%), which remains clearly the leading item of provincial imports (1.4 billion euro in 2010, equal to 30% of the provincial total). There were also increases in the fashion sector (+19.8%) and the metal sector (+50.3%). The value of agricultural products also increased: +39.4 % compared to 2009.
Vehicles, on the other hand, registered a decrease in imported goods (-45.3%), largely due to the reduction in imports of aircraft (from 121 million euro in 2009 to 28 million in 2010).
Verona
The export trend for the province was positive for 2010 (+15.5%) and involved all the main economic sectors, with increases of more than 10% for the mechanical sector, the province's largest export sector (1.4 billion euro), as well as for food, clothing-leather goods, metal products and vehicles. The most important market for manufactured goods from Verona was still Germany (1.2 billion euro, an annual increase of +15.5% compared to 2009). France retained second place (848 million euro, an annual increase of +17.6%) some way ahead of Spain (+13.4%). Verona's foreign sales also grew in the principal emerging economies: +40.2% in Russia, +17.1% in China, +20.5% in Turkey, +53.2% in India and + 47.3% in Brazil.
Imports to Verona increased by +18.2% in 2010. The province of Verona accounts for more than 30% of the region's imports and this is strongly influenced by the presence of some car importers in the province (4.6 billion euro in 2010, equal to 39.5% of the province's imports). There were also increases in imports of metals (+41.5%), mechanical goods (+26.9%) and chemicals (+50.7%).
The province mainly imported goods from Germany (a provincial share of 43.1% with an annual increase of +10.6%), Spain (+26.3%), France (+16.3%), China (+20.9%) and Belgium (+27%).
Vicenza
In 2010 the growth of provincial exports was driven by the sales of all its leading types of goods, with impressive performance in the sectors of fashion (+18.2% compared to 2009), jewellery (+23.3%) and electrical equipment (+17.9%).
Exports began to grow again to Germany (+18%), which confirmed its place as the leading market for exports from Vicenza (1.7 billion euro, equal to nearly 13% of provincial exports). Exports also increased to France (+11.2%), the United States (+22.5%), Spain (+15.1%) and Switzerland (+39.9%). Consistent growth of Vicenza exports to the markets of the new economies was also recorded: + 29.8% to China, +15.5% to Russia, +30.9% to Hong Kong and +17.3% to India.
In 2010 the province of Vicenza imported 7.5 billion euro worth of goods. Compared to the previous year, imports grew by about 1.8 billion euro, equal to an annual increase of 33%. This growth was driven by the very positive performance of metals (+43.2%), fashion (+36%) and chemicals (+36.3%). Geographically, the most important contributors to this growth of imports to Vicenza were the Netherlands (+46.1%), Germany (+36.3%), Switzerland (+42%), Brazil (+41.6%), Belgium (+35.4%) and India (+54.6%).